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合康变频:低碳经济春风下的高压变频器之骄子

http://finance.591hx.com  2010年05月05日 17:18:26  华讯财经  我要推荐此文给好友
你的股票择机抛出还是持股待涨?如果您想判断手中的个股在后市中该加仓还是减仓?马上提交测测!

  摘要低碳经济政策将推动高压变频器行业进入高速成长期

积极推行低碳经济、减排节能的宏观政策方针,高压变频器行业将会得到更大的政策扶持力度和各基础行业更多的订单需求,2010-2012年高压变频器行业有望实现年均30%以上的高增长率,市场未来潜在容量高达812亿元,行业发展潜力巨大。

 

公司核心竞争优势明显

公司技术实力为内资企业之首,核心技术率先自主研发;丰富的生产经验、稳定可靠的产品品质、广泛的客户基础及良好的销售业绩;合理的股东结构,公司管理层积极进取,激励机制充分;国际市场开拓顺利,奠定了海外市场基础。

 

高性能高压变频器将推动公司未来业绩飞跃

公司早先布局高性能高压变频器领域,随着公司在高性能高压变频器领域的加大开拓,毛利率较之通用型有优势的高性能高压变频器对于综合毛利率的提升作用将会更加明显。

 

募集资金后投资项目的建成投产,将进一步巩固公司在高压变频器行业市场地位和竞争力

募集资金投向主要包括三个部分:建设高压变频器生产线,达产后公司年生产能力达1200 台;新建研发实验室,进一步加大研发投入;加大信息化建设投入,进一步提高公司信息化管理水平。建设高压变频器生产线项目将于2010 年年初投产,当年产能为850 台,2011 年完全达产,产能达到1200/年,可有效解决公司目前面临的产能不足问题。

 

公司估值、盈利预测及投资评级

公司股票的合理价格在58-67预测2010-2011年的EPS分别为0.88元、1.19元,相对其34.16元的发行价,价值低估,公司未来投资价值比较大。笔者认为给予公司2010 年和2011年分别以55-60倍和45-50倍的P/E较为合理较为合理。预计2010年、2011公司营业收入分别为48920万元、66633万元,未来3年复合增长率将会保持在50%左右,净利润复合增长率将在42%左右。公司未来毛利率将会在40%左右震荡的。鉴于行业的高景气周期,公司的核心竞争优势,产品的结构不断优化,业绩存在超预期可能性,给予行业“看好”和公司增持”投资评级。

风险因素

笔者认为公司主要风险技术升级换代风险和为专利许可合同终止或无效的风险. 核心技术人员不足或者流失的风险

关键字:低碳经济 政策支持 核心竞争优势 未来业绩 估值偏低

HKBP,(300048SZ) :

The leading high-voltage-inverter enterprise supported by the low-carbon economy policy

Abstract: low-carbon economic policy will promote the high-voltage-inverter industry’s high-speed growth

Along with the national low-carbon economy policy and actively promotion of saving energy, the high-voltage-inverter industry will get more policy support and more basic demands; from 2010 to 2012 the high-voltage-inverter industry market is expected to develop by averagely 30% potential growth. The potential capacity of the industry is more than 812 billion yuan.

 

Company’s core competence advantages

Company has the technical domination among domestic enterprises, the core technology of independent research and development; the rich production experience, stable and reliable quality of products and extensive customer base and good sales performance; Reasonable structure, the management of the company shareholder is positive and the incentive system is effective; develop gradually smoothly in the international market, which lays down the stable oversea fundament.

 

High-quality high-voltage-inverter will promote the company's future performance

Company has previously produced the high-quality high-voltage inverter, with the company expand in this field, gross area more than universal development of the high-quality high-voltage inverter which has higher gross profit rate than the universal high-voltage inverter, will do more conspicuous effects in ascension for comprehensive gross profit rate.

 

After investment project where raising funds are invested to is completed and put into operation, it will surely consolidate company’s position and competitiveness in the high-voltage-inverter

Where the raised funds will be used mainly includes three parts: The construction of high-voltage-inverter production line, which will ensure company of annual production capacity of 1,200 units; new research laboratory, which will increase technical domination; the informationization construction investment, which will improve the level of informationization management. The projects of high-voltage-inverter production line will be partly put into operation in early time in 2010. The current production is 850 sets. When it is totally completer in 2011, the capacity will reach 1200 sets per year. This can solve the current problems of inadequate supply. 

 

Company valuations, profit forecast and investment rating

The reasonable price interval of company’s stock is 58 yuan to 67 yuan. From 2010 to 2011, the forecast of EPS are, 0.88 yuan, 1.19 yuan, compared with its IPO price---34.16 yuan, the stock’s value is undervalued. We give company 55-60 times P/E in 2010, 45-50 times P/E in 2011which we think is more reasonable. From 2010 to 2011, Company’s business income will be 489, 20 million yuan, 666.33 million yuan. The compound annual business income growth rate will remain in 50%, compound rate of net income will remain 42%. The future gross profit rate will be about 40 percent. Due to the high boom cycle of the industry, the company's core competency advantages, and the constantly optimized structure of products, we give the industry with "Long (position) "investment rating and give the company with "Shareholding Increase" investment rating.

 

Risk factors

The author thinks company main risks are risk in technical upgrading and the potential that patent licensing contracts will be terminated.

Key words: low-carbon economy, policy’ support, core competency advantages, expectable future profits, value undervalued

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

行业投资评级:看好

电力设备行业                     

 

公司投资评级:增持

                          

合康变频(300048.SZ

报告日期:20100408   当日收盘价:55.95

公司09年度报告披露时间:     20100408

发行基本资料

每股发行价格(元)                34.16

总股本(万股)                      12,000

发行数量(万股)                     3,000

总股本/流通A ()          12000/2400

流通B /H 股(万               -/-

网下发行(万股)                      600

网上发行(万股)                     2,400

发行方式                     网下询价,网上申购

保荐机构                          中信证券

发行日期                        2010-01-07

上市证券交易所             深圳证券交易所创业板

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

募集资金投向

项目名称金额                             (百万元)

高压变频器生产研发基地                     331.72

 

 

 

 

盈利预测

 

2007A

2008A

2009A

2010E

2011E

营业总收入(万元)

10,082

16,979

29,566

48,920

66,633

增幅(%)

188.00

68.40

74.13%

75.06

36.21

净利润(万元)

1,674

3,833

7,038

10,577

14,332

增幅(%)

955.09

128.97

83.62

50.28

35.50

EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润)

1,837

4,775

8,534

13,444

18,327

增幅(%)

848.30%

159.94%

78.74%

57.53%

36.32%

毛利率(%)

35.8

42.93

41.19

41.52

41.61

EPS(元)

0.19

0.43

0.79

0.88

1.19

全面摊薄净资产收益率(%)

38.12

46.61

36.79

9.15

11.11

ROIC(资本回报率)(%)

27.35

25.98

19.61

8.66

10.76

 

 

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